Nintendo Switch Projected Dominance in Next-Gen Sales

Despite not yet being released, DFC Intelligence, a video game market research firm, projects Nintendo's Switch 2 to be the best-selling next-gen console. Their 2024 Video Game Market Report and Forecast, released December 17th, predicts sales exceeding 15-17 million units in 2025 and over 80 million units by 2028. This makes Nintendo the projected "clear winner" and "console market leader," surpassing Microsoft and Sony.

This forecast stems from the Switch 2's anticipated 2025 release, giving it a significant head start over competitors. DFC Intelligence suggests that Microsoft and Sony, while developing their own handheld consoles, are likely further behind in development, potentially releasing new consoles around 2028. This three-year gap provides a considerable advantage to the Switch 2, with the report suggesting only one of the post-Switch 2 consoles will achieve significant success. A hypothetical "PS6" is mentioned as a potential contender due to PlayStation's established player base and strong intellectual properties.

The Switch's immense popularity fuels this prediction. Circana (formerly NPD) reported that the Switch has surpassed the PlayStation 2 in lifetime US sales, becoming the second best-selling console in US history after the Nintendo DS. This achievement is noteworthy despite a reported 3% decrease in yearly Switch sales.

DFC Intelligence's report also paints a positive outlook for the entire video game industry. After a two-year slump, the industry is projected to experience healthy growth through the end of the decade, with 2025 potentially being a record year. This growth is attributed to new product releases, including the Switch 2 and Grand Theft Auto VI, which are expected to boost consumer spending. The global gaming audience is projected to surpass 4 billion players by 2027, driven by the increasing popularity of portable gaming and the growth of esports and gaming influencers. Hardware sales, for both PCs and consoles, are also expected to rise.