With Nintendo Switch 2 Waiting in the Wings, Sales of the Original Switch and Its Games Continue to Tumble

Nintendo's hardware sales forecast has been revised downward again, as Switch console and game sales fell short of projections.

For the first nine months of the fiscal year, Nintendo's dedicated video game console business saw a 31.7% year-over-year decline in revenue, reaching 895.5 billion yen (approximately $5.7 billion). This drop stems from decreased sales of both the Nintendo Switch and its software.

Mobile and IP-related income also experienced a significant downturn, decreasing by 33.9% year-over-year to 49.7 billion yen (approximately $320 million). This is primarily attributed to the challenging comparison with the exceptionally successful 2023 release of The Super Mario Bros. Movie.

Consequently, gross profit decreased by 27.3% year-over-year to 565.5 billion yen (approximately $3.6 billion).

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Nintendo has again lowered its financial forecast for the fiscal year ending March 2025, marking the second consecutive downward revision. The company anticipates even lower Nintendo Switch hardware sales than previously projected, reducing its forecast by 1.5 million units to 11 million, and software sales by 10 million units to 150 million.

While sales declines are expected for the eight-year-old Switch, the magnitude surpasses Nintendo's initial predictions. Nevertheless, the Switch has achieved remarkable success, surpassing 150 million units sold. While overtaking the PlayStation 2 (160 million units sold) as the best-selling console may be unlikely, the Nintendo DS (154 million units sold) is within reach.

Nintendo characterized Switch and software sales in the third quarter (ending December 31, 2024) as "stable considering the platform's eighth year."

Overall Switch family sales decreased by 30.6% year-over-year to 9.54 million units. Software sales declined by 24.4% year-over-year to 123.98 million units. However, Nintendo highlighted strong sales of new titles: The Legend of Zelda: Echoes of Wisdom (3.91 million), Super Mario Party Jamboree (6.17 million), Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (5.38 million), and Nintendo Switch Sports (2.63 million) during the quarter. Mario & Luigi: Brothership reached 1.4 million units sold.

Super Mario Party Jamboree stands out as a significant success. Within its first 11 weeks (following its October 17, 2024 release), its sales outpaced previous Mario Party titles on the Switch.

Crucially, for Nintendo's upcoming Switch 2 launch, active players are at an all-time high, with 129 million annual active users in 2024. This indicates continued engagement despite the console's age.

Nintendo acknowledged the year-over-year decline in Switch unit sales but emphasized its continued appeal, noting that holiday sales in some weeks exceeded those of the previous year.

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In light of the financial report, investors eagerly anticipate the Switch 2 launch. Nintendo confirmed upcoming releases for the original Switch: Xenoblade Chronicles X: Definitive Edition (March 20), and Pokémon Legends: Z-A and Metroid Prime 4: Beyond (2025).

The Switch 2 was also mentioned, with Nintendo reiterating its 2025 release date and referencing the previously released hardware reveal video. A dedicated Switch 2 Direct presentation is scheduled for April 2, promising further details, alongside hands-on events globally.